Guotai Junan: The rise of leading enterprises and the downward shift of costs are important features of the steel industry entering a new cycle. Guotai Junan issued a document saying that with the change of demand structure, the demand for plates has steadily increased, and the demand for high-end plates such as automobiles, household appliances, shipbuilding, offshore engineering and energy is strong. The added value and profit per ton of products brought by leading companies' active adjustment of product structure, accumulation of products, R&D drive, continuous capital expenditure and equipment investment have been significantly improved, gradually widening the gap with the industry average gross profit. When the industry is facing the marginal losses of most steel enterprises, leading companies still maintain a high profit level by relying on the cost advantages brought by product differences and management, and the rise and differentiation of industry leaders are emerging. On the other hand, with the gradual increase in the supply side and the difficulty in improving the demand side, iron ore has gradually entered a loose cycle, and the steel cost constraints are expected to gradually improve.South Korea will take additional market stabilization measures when necessary.Bank of Japan: The confidence index of large manufacturers rose to the highest level since March 2022.
The yen once fell to 152.74 against the US dollar, and the trend fluctuated after the release of the Bank of Japan's short-term survey. After the release of the Bank of Japan's short-term survey, the yen initially rose slightly, but then weakened. The yen once fell 0.1% against the US dollar to 152.74. The 10-year Japanese government bond futures rose 4 points to 142.49.Guotai Junan: It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate in the bottom range in 2025, and there is a strong opportunity and space for rebound. Guotai Junan Securities recently reported that the lithium price has entered the bottom range by the end of 2024. If the demand maintains the current neutral estimate in 2025, the lithium price will fluctuate in the bottom range. At present, the market is optimistic about the demand in 2025, and the industry supply has slowed down. It is estimated that the price trend of lithium will fluctuate in the bottom range in 2025, in which the stage is affected by seasonal factors and there is a strong rebound opportunity and space. The market expected the trading of lithium plate earlier, that is, when the commodity price bottomed out, the lithium plate already contained the expectation of industrial clearing. When the industry actually enters the stage of supply and clearing, the sector will trade commodity price reversal expectations. From this, we infer that the rise of lithium plate will start before the spot price reverses.Ministry of Finance of Korea: If the volatility is excessively intensified, more market stabilization measures will be taken.
Guotai Junan: The rise of leading enterprises and the downward shift of costs are important features of the steel industry entering a new cycle. Guotai Junan issued a document saying that with the change of demand structure, the demand for plates has steadily increased, and the demand for high-end plates such as automobiles, household appliances, shipbuilding, offshore engineering and energy is strong. The added value and profit per ton of products brought by leading companies' active adjustment of product structure, accumulation of products, R&D drive, continuous capital expenditure and equipment investment have been significantly improved, gradually widening the gap with the industry average gross profit. When the industry is facing the marginal losses of most steel enterprises, leading companies still maintain a high profit level by relying on the cost advantages brought by product differences and management, and the rise and differentiation of industry leaders are emerging. On the other hand, with the gradual increase in the supply side and the difficulty in improving the demand side, iron ore has gradually entered a loose cycle, and the steel cost constraints are expected to gradually improve.The yield of China's 10-year government bonds fell below 1.80% at the beginning of the session, hitting a new record low.CITIC Securities: The short-term copper price rebound has a foundation, and it pays attention to the allocation opportunities of the copper plate. CITIC Securities Research Report said that the recent TC negotiation results of copper concentrates, frequent domestic policy warm winds, and the off-season destocking of domestic stocks have been resonantly catalyzed, superimposed with the fall of the US dollar. We believe that the short-term copper price rebound has a foundation and the medium-term fundamental expectations are more solid. We predict that the copper price in the next quarter will run in the range of 9000-10000 USD/ton, which has strong upward elasticity in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of copper plate. It is suggested to comprehensively select stocks from the dimensions of segment valuation rationality, output growth next year and copper price elasticity.
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14